Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to garner 8.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- Mike Evans has notched many more air yards this season (128.0 per game) than he did last season (117.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily utilized in his offense’s pass attack.
- With an excellent 71.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (90th percentile) this year, Mike Evans places among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.
- Mike Evans’s 4.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a substantial gain in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 2.6% rate.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive gameplan to skew 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- This week’s line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 128.6 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.2 per game) this year.
- This year, the formidable Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered a meager 121.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
