Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to total 15.7 carries in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- After taking on 33.7% of his offense’s rushing play calls last season, Rachaad White has been more involved in the rushing attack this season, currently taking on 57.8%.
- Rachaad White’s 47.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a material boost in his running ability over last year’s 30.0 mark.
- This year, the deficient Indianapolis Colts run defense has been gouged for a monstrous 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 9th-worst in the league.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-slowest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per snap.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- The Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Rachaad White’s rushing efficiency (3.31 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (12th percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
