Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Commanders vs. Eagles
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+102) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 13.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 66.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
- The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (39.1 per game) this year.
Cons
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging just 8.77 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.90 mark last year.
- Terry McLaurin’s talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, totaling just 3.65 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.84 figure last year.
- The Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus wideouts this year, giving up 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a puny 2.9 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
