Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to use backup quarterback PJ Walker in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s line implies a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 65.7 per game on average).
- The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.2 per game) this year.
Cons
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 55.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- David Njoku has posted quite a few less air yards this year (18.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, David Njoku has been used much less in his offense’s passing offense.
- David Njoku’s 35.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteworthy reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 50.0 mark.
- David Njoku’s 7.0 adjusted yards per target this year represents an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 8.9 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
