Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Raiders vs. Packers
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Since the start of last season, the poor Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a monstrous 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the highest rate in football.
- The Raiders pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 8.00 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football.
Cons
- The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.0 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
- With a subpar 57.9% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, Jordan Love stands as one of the least on-target QBs in football.
- The Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
282
Passing Yards
282
Passing Yards
