Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 255.5 (-110) after it opened @ 248.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
- Geno Smith has been among the top quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 255.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
- Geno Smith has been among the most accurate passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 68.8% Completion%, checking in at the 76th percentile.
- Geno Smith has been among the best per-play QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 7.30 yards-per-target while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Geno Smith to throw 35.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in football.
- Since the start of last season, the imposing Giants defense has allowed a puny 68.2% Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
