Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zack MossRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-122/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-122) after it opened @ 69.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.2% run rate.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Zack Moss to earn 19.2 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Rams defensive ends rank as the 4th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
