Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 243.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.94 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Trevor Lawrence’s throwing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 62.7%.
- The Falcons defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Atlanta’s safety corps has been terrific since the start of last season, projecting as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
