Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Broncos
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 95.5 (-137) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 11.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 31.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill has put up a colossal 136.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been among the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 97.0 yards per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
- The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, surrendering 6.96 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards
99
Receiving Yards
