Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-120/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-120) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.0% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 18.4 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has been given 80.1% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has generated 91.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (99th percentile).
- Opposing squads have run for the 10th-most yards in the NFL (131 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
