Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Dallas Goedert has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (87.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (76.1%).
- Dallas Goedert has been among the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 59.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
- The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (77.1%) versus TEs this year (77.1%).
Cons
- The Eagles are a massive 17-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dallas Goedert has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).
- The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
