Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Christian McCaffrey has picked up 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (135 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (42.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.5% in games he has played).

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards