Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-113/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-113) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (72.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Irv Smith has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging just 5.35 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 10th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
