Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a big 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.45 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Houston Texans O-line has given their QB a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards