Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kadarius ToneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Right now, Kadarius Toney’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-120) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (150.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Kadarius Toney has run a route on 22.2% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 13th percentile among wideouts.
- Kadarius Toney has notched a meager 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 16th percentile among wideouts.
- Kadarius Toney has been among the worst WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 0.0 yards per game while ranking in the 1st percentile among wide receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
