NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The FTN Fantasy Splits Tool rolls along in the postseason, where I’ll be looking at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook in the playoffs. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
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Kansas City @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -3.5, O/U 44.5
Chiefs
The Chiefs narrowly escaped overtime and walked out of Buffalo with a three-point victory, but the game was a lot more lopsided than the final score.
Patrick Mahomes put on a vintage performance in his first road playoff game, completing 73.91% of his passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a 131.6 passer rating. Travis Kelce was the recipient of both scores through the air, catching five of six passes for 75 yards. Since the start of the postseason, Kelce has quietly turned back the clock, earning a target on 30% of his routes, recording six-plus receptions for over 70 yards in back-to-back games.
He currently has the second-most receptions in playoff history (145), needing six more to pass Jerry Rice for first all-time. Despite clearing that mark in two consecutive games, Kelce will have his work cut out for him against Baltimore, who ended the regular season ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA against the pass, allowing less than five catches per game (4.8) to opposing tight ends.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson made history in the divisional round, becoming the first player in NFL history to record a 100-plus passer rating while rushing for 100-plus yards, and scoring twice through the air and twice on the ground. He had just 152 passing yards on the day playing from a head for most of the contest. That will unlikely be the case this upcoming week, facing the reigning, defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who have finally started to hit their stride in the playoffs. Fortunately for Jackson, he’ll likely have Mark Andrews back in the lineup, who led the Ravens with a 23% target share before going down in Week 11. However, despite not having his top pass catcher available for nearly eight games, Jackson averages 4.64 more passing yards and almost a full touchdown (+0.89) more when Andrews has missed or failed to log double-digit snaps.
Jackson will likely need all the help he can get, facing a Chiefs defense that was one of four teams to allow less than 200 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (197.2), finishing fifth overall in DVOA against the pass. It’s unknown whether Andrews will be limited or not, but he has been a full participant in practice for over two weeks.
Game Props
Isiah Pacheco Over 13.5 Rush Attempts
(-125, BetMGM)
Isiah Pacheco 15+ Rush Attempts
(+155, Bet365)
Isiah Pacheco is averaging 19.5 carries in the postseason and has handled 15-plus carries in 11 out of his last 13 games excluding Week 16, when he exited early with a concussion. Up next, Pacheco faces a Ravens defense that ended the regular season ranked top eight in DVOA against the rush (-14.3%, seventh), but still allowed over 20 carries per game (20.3) to opposing backfields.
Isiah Pacheco Over 2.5 Receptions
(-140, Bet365)
Isiah Pacheco has just two catches in the playoffs after totaling at least 3 receptions in each of his last four games to close out the regular season without Jerick McKinnon. That said, Pacheco should see more receiving work this week, facing a Ravens defense that was one of only nine teams to allow over 85 receptions to opposing running backs, ceding 5.1 catches per game to the position. Despite the Texans’ offense being largely shut down in the Divisional Round, Devin Singletary had a strong day as a pass catcher, finishing second on the team in target share (18%), catching five of six passes for 48 yards.
Rashee Rice Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rashee Rice was held to just 47 yards in the Divisional Round, rotating in and out of the lineup as he dealt with a hamstring injury. A week of rest should help Rice get back on track, facing a Ravens secondary that ended the regular season ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA against the pass (-28.8%), while still allowing the fourth most targets (9.2) and 67.9 to opposing WR1s. Since Week 12, Rice has cleared his 52.5 receiving prop in seven out of eight games, averaging nearly seven receptions (6.9) on nine targets and 86.9 yards through the air.
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Travis Kelce has seen a significant uptick in usage since the start of the playoffs, earning a target on 30% of his routes, and recording over 70 receiving yards in back-to-back games. He’s averaging six receptions on eight targets over his last two games, needing six more grabs to pass Jerry Rice for the all-time leader in postseason receptions.
Mark Andrews Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mark Andrews led Baltimore with a 23% target share before going down in Week 11, clearing his 34.5-yard receiving prop in all nine healthy games, averaging 57.9 yards through the air. He’s been a full participant in practice for over two weeks and should be called upon early and often, even on a pitch count, facing a Chiefs defense that allowed the eight-most targets (7.5) & 47.4 yards per game to opposing tight ends in the regular season.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
49ers -7.5, O/U 51.5
Lions
The roar has been restored in Detroit, with the Lions just one game away from making their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. They’ve been fortunate to secure home-field advantage up to this point, but will now have to travel on the road, where Jared Goff has historically struggled, averaging just 1.2 touchdowns outside of Ford Field this season.
Up next, Goff faces a 49ers defense that ended the season ranked fourth overall in DVOA against the pass, allowing the ninth fewest passing touchdowns per game (1.18) to opposing signal callers.
49ers
The 49ers are back in the Conference Championship game for a second straight season, looking to stay undefeated at home in the postseason since Kyle Shanahan took over as the head coach. Similar to last season, injuries are starting to catch up to San Fransisco at the worst time possible, potentially missing Deebo Samuel this weekend.
Despite having arguably the best supporting cast in the NFL, Brock Purdy has struggled with Deebo Samuel out or severely limited, averaging just one touchdown compared to 1.3 interceptions per game.
That said, Purdy couldn’t have asked for a better matchup than Detroit, who ended the regular season allowing the fourth-most passing yards (268.4 per game) to opposing quarterbacks, finishing as one of only six teams to allow 1.6-plus touchdowns through the air per game (1.65).
Game Props
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 Receptions
(+130, Bet365)
Jahmyr Gibbs has caught four passes for over 40 yards in both playoff games, despite playing on just 35% of Detroit’s offensive snaps. He’s been outsnapped by David Montgomery 71-45 since the start of the postseason. That said, Gibbs has still been the preferred option in the receiving game, earning a target on 33% of his routes, while averaging 41.5 receiving yards per game. Up next, Gibbs faces a 49ers defense that has been susceptible to pass-catching backs, ending the regular season allowing the fourth-most targets (6.9) and receptions (5.3) to opposing running backs.
Brock Purdy Over 20.5 Completions
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brock Purdy has 22-plus completions in back-to-back games, setting a career-high in dropbacks (39) last week against the Packers. Up next, Purdy faces a Lions defense that ended the regular season ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA against the rush (-18%) but was a lot more susceptible through the air, allowing the fourth most passing yards (268.4) and 21.8 completions per game to opposing signal callers. Detroit’s secondary has looked even worse in the postseason, allowing over 345 passing yards on 25-plus completions to both Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
