First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Everyone loves to bet individual player props for the Super Bowl, adding even more interest to the biggest sporting event of the season. Using our incredible tools at FTN Fantasy, we can analyze each player’s strengths and project where they can see success in the grand finale of the 2024 NFL season.
Here are my thoughts on each individual skill position player for the Kansas City Chiefs for Super Bowl LIX.
Check out my Super Bowl player notes for the Eagles.
Super Bowl LIX Player Notes: Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Still only 29 years old, Patrick Mahomes is making a case for being the greatest quarterback of all time. In just eight seasons, he has already been named to six Pro Bowls, earned first-team All-Pro twice, won two MVPs and an Offensive Player of the Year Award (2018) and tallied three Super Bowl wins with three Super Bowl MVPs. Through his first 100 starts, Mahomes ranks first overall among all quarterbacks in NFL history in winning percentage (80%), passing yards (29,919) and passing touchdowns (238). His legendary career just continues to get better.
Despite a 15-2 season, Mahomes finds himself as only a slight favorite to the Eagles. Using the FTN Splits Tool, it’s clear to see Mahomes thrives in these opportunities. In the four games where Kansas City has been the favorite by less than two points, Mahomes has thrown for 26.8 more yards and averaged 6.3 more fantasy points per game.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Since returning from his broken fibula, Isiah Pacheco has struggled to find consistent production. The third-year running back has totaled just 205 rushing yards on 59 carries during that time, equating to a brutal 3.4 yards per carry. He has also been a non-factor in the passing game all season, with just 12 receptions in 7 games played, after 44 receptions in 14 games last season.
Some of that lack of production can be attributed to a rib injury sustained immediately upon his return, which could be mitigated by the two-week rest prior to Super Bowl LIX. Pacheco was a critical part of Kansas City’s Super Bowl victory over Philadelphia in 2022, posting 76 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry and a touchdown.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Kansas City Star reporter Jesse Newell reminded me on the SiriusXM Fantasy Show that despite Kareem Hunt’s eight seasons in the NFL, this is his first opportunity for extended playoff experience. The 29-year-old running back played one game against Tennessee as a rookie but missed the Chiefs Super Bowl run after his 2018 release as a result of a video surfacing of him pushing and kicking a woman.
Hunt has made the most of his second chance, serving as a volume-based rusher for the Chiefs this season. He saw 200 carries in the regular season, posting 7 touchdowns. In Kansas City’s two playoff games, Hunt has produced a solid 4.3 yards per carry on 25 rushing attempts. With uncertainty surrounding Pacheco, Hunt could be in line for another large workload next Sunday.
Xavier Worthy, WR
The 21-year-old speedy rookie wideout has evolved into a reliable receiver for Patrick Mahomes. Over his last five games, Worthy has seen 8.8 targets per game, with 32 total receptions and 3 touchdowns during that span. Head coach Andy Reid is a master at getting the ball in Worthy’s hands, giving him 11 carries during those contests as well.
Per FTN’s StatsHub, 17 of Worthy’s 98 targets came on passes that traveled at least 20 yards. He accumulated 120 of his 638 receiving yards on those passes, converting two for touchdowns. Worthy is a big-play threat that has become more involved in the offense as the season has progressed.
Marquise Brown, WR
The 27-year-old wideout came to Kansas City with a pedigree of four straight years of 100 or more targets. Brown suffered a preseason shoulder injury that kept him off the field until Dec. 21. His final two regular-season games were promising, posting 9 receptions on 15 total targets, but he has yet to make a significant impact in the playoffs.
Brown has a similar profile to Worthy, looking to dominate his opponents with his speed. His 4.32 40-yard dash profile has led to a consistent 11.6 yards per reception average over his six-year NFL career. Per FTN StatsHub, teams did try to complete deep passes on Philadelphia, with the Eagles seeing a Top 10 rate of 12.7% deep pass attempts against their defense over the course of the season. However, teams completed only 24.8% of those passes against the Eagles, second worst among all NFL defenses.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
If Kansas City wants to execute the near-impossible three-peat, veteran DeAndre Hopkins will likely play a critical role. The 32-year-old wideout has seen his production slow toward the end of the season, failing to crest 37 receiving yards since Nov. 29.
Hopkins’ role has been reduced to the WR3 spot, coinciding with Brown’s return. That should play to the Chiefs’ advantage, as Philadelphia allowed 10% more production to opposing WR3s per DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against. Hopkins has seen only three targets this postseason but still has the ability to make difficult catches in critical situations.
Travis Kelce, TE
Travis Kelce may be slowing down, but the 35-year-old tight end is still one of the most dangerous receivers in the red zone. Kelce led the position with 28 red zone targets and 21 red zone receptions during the regular season. Prior to last week’s game against Buffalo, Kelce had posted a combined 15 receptions, 204 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in the prior two contests.
This will be Kelce’s most challenging matchup of the year, as Philadelphia ranks first overall in DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against, allowing 30% less production to the tight end position. It’s hard to imagine a repeat of Kelce’s 2022 Super Bowl stat line of 6 receptions, 81 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. His production has certainly slowed, but for one game, there isn’t another tight end I’d rather have on the field than Kelce.
