Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-129) after it opened @ 244.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 4th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 63.0%.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 7th-most yards in football (278.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
