Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (-110) after it opened @ 252.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 38.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, allowing 8.36 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.3%).
- The Washington Commanders safeties project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards
276
Passing Yards
