Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-133) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have used some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (20.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (49.5% in games he has played).
- The San Francisco 49ers defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.37 yards-per-carry.
- The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the best unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Rushing Yards
20
Rushing Yards
