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Chris Meaney
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Panthers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 16.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his team’s run game this season (74.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (62.9%).
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
- Christian McCaffrey has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (83rd percentile).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup quarterback P.J. Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a huge 10-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
