Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+110/-151).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-151) after it opened @ 30.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Dalton Schultz to notch 4.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Dalton Schultz has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- Dalton Schultz’s 23.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.
- The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
