Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Raiders vs. Steelers
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 19.3 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Josh Jacobs has averaged 92.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (100th percentile).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 31st-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Josh Jacobs’s ground effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a mere 1.64 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.99 mark last year.
- Josh Jacobs has taken a step back when it comes to picking up extra rushing yardage this year, accumulating 1.93 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.40 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
