Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Marquise Brown has been among the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a lowly 6.07 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63.3%) versus WRs since the start of last season (63.3%).
- The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
