Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-148/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+112) after it opened @ 33.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a less important option in his team’s pass game this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.3% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
