Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Packers vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-120) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 31.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (74.8%) versus TEs since the start of last season (74.8%).
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Juwan Johnson’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 62.9%.
- Juwan Johnson’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating just 6.23 yards-per-target compared to a 8.39 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
