Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-105) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects D.K. Metcalf to total 8.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
- D.K. Metcalf has accrued a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among WRs.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) to WRs since the start of last season (72.6%).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.01 seconds per snap.
- D.K. Metcalf has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 19th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
