Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Titans vs. Raiders
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 51.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- Darren Waller has run a route on 86.1% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to garner 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 40.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (66.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (66.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
