Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.43 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- CeeDee Lamb has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 84.0 yards per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
Cons
- The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.58 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
