Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 251.5 (-115) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Geno Smith has been among the top passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 252.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
- Geno Smith’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 69.4% to 72.6%.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (74.5%).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.01 seconds per snap.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards
243
Passing Yards
