Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 233.5 (-135) after it opened @ 232.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.43 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Dak Prescott’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.4% to 73.1%.
Cons
- The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to attempt 33.0 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
227
Passing Yards
227
Passing Yards
