Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-120) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Kylen Granson to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- Kylen Granson has received a monstrous 9.1% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Kylen Granson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.6% to 66.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
