Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 92.5 (-130) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 23.8 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 84.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has been among the best RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.67 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Derrick Henry has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards
105
Rushing Yards
