Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this game, Breece Hall is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 18.0 carries.
- Breece Hall has received 55.4% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- With a terrific rate of 3.31 yards after contact (88th percentile), Breece Hall stands among the powerful running backs in football this year.
Cons
- The Jets will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At the present time, the 8th-least run-focused team in the NFL (36.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Jets.
- The projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Jets O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL last year in run support.
- This year, the porous New England Patriots run defense has allowed a whopping 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 31st-largest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
