Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-114) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to earn 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Brandin Cooks has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (77.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards