Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rashid ShaheedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Rashid Shaheed’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-145) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 135.0) to WRs this year.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.2%) vs. wideouts this year (60.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
