Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- Out of all RBs, Brian Robinson ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 61.9% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive strategy to lean 12.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to run on 32.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Brian Robinson’s 48.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season signifies a remarkable reduction in his running ability over last season’s 63.0 rate.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 95.0 per game) against the Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
