Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive strategy to lean 12.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- This year, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded a colossal 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-highest rate in football.
Cons
- Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
- Terry McLaurin’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.4% to 62.4%.
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling just 7.68 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 rate last year.
- Terry McLaurin’s 3.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows an impressive drop-off in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 5.8% rate.
- The Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
