Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.
- Durham Smythe has gone out for fewer passes this season (73.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (27.1%).
- After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last season, Durham Smythe has posted big gains this season, now sitting at 14.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) to TEs this year (69.2%).
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
