Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Patriots
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to total 17.3 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has received 73.9% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Dalvin Cook’s running effectiveness (4.96 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (78th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 109 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
