Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 259.5 (-115) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
This week, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the predictive model to average the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.0.
Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an excellent 67.8% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 75th percentile.
This year, the poor Raiders defense has allowed a colossal 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the league.

Cons

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Patrick Mahomes’s 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a remarkable drop-off in his throwing ability over last season’s 325.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes’s passing effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 7.24 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards