Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to earn 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- D.J. Moore has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
