Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Giants vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-135) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The New York Giants pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.1% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the league against the New York Giants defense this year (65.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
195
Passing Yards
195
Passing Yards
