Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 30.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to accrue 4.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (69.4%).
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.87 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
- The Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
