
Closing line value is an amazing barometer of if you are holding a valuable ticket going into an event. When you beat the closing line, you have CLV, or closing line value — your implied probability to win your bet is greater than what the closing market dictates. While my closing line value for the NFL draft has been insanely good — currently 66 of my bets have moved in my favor including all nine of my two-plus-unit bets — I didn’t win them all. Eleven lines moved against me, and part of being a good bettor is understanding why and how to avoid similar mistakes in the future. Here are the 12 bets that moved against me, what happened, and if I would still bet them.
Justin Fields, 2nd Overall Pick +500
This bet was made in early February, when books’ numbers were all over the place. I was able to grab Zach Wilson at -180 to be the second overall pick and essentially freeroll it with his only true competition at the time. This bet is currently drawing dead and is not one I would make currently, but at the time was the perfect hedge to my Wilson ticket.
Ja’Marr Chase, 3rd Overall Pick +400
Just a few days after betting this, the line dropped to +200. Chase is said to be one of two players Miami covets — the other being Kyle Pitts — and at the time was going in 38% of mock drafts to the Dolphins. It seemed like a valuable ticket if they didn't trade out, but then San Francisco made an offer they couldn’t refuse and now this ticket is drawing dead with the 49ers locked in on a quarterback. Trades are always possible but are normally talked about more than they happen, I bet against a trade and lost — it happens.