NBA DFS Preview – First Look (4/7)

The baseball season may get underway Thursday, but we still have plenty of NBA DFS action.

There are seven games on the Thursday slate, and we really have to keep an eye on a few teams, especially the Los Angeles Lakers. 

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for April 7 | NBA DFS First Look

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -13, total: 230.5
Pace: ORL (11th), CHA (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Wendell Carter, Cole Anthony and Franz Wagner have been ruled out for Orlando.
• Gordon Hayward (foot) is listed as doubtful.

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -6.5, total: 227.5
Pace: BOS (24th), MIL (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is once again listed as probable. Grayson Allen (hip) is doubtful to play.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors

PHI -1.5, total: 220
Pace: PHI (26th), TOR (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Matisse Thybulle is ineligible to play in this game.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -8.5, total: 241.5
Pace: SAS (4th), MIN (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Dejounte Murray will remain sidelined with an illness. Devin Vassell is listed as probable.
• For Minnesota, Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley and Jaden McDaniels are all listed as questionable.

Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans

NOP -17, total: 224
Pace: POR (14th), NOP (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) is listed as questionable for New Orleans. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -4.5, total: 232.5
Pace: MEM (3rd), DEN (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant will likely remain out for Memphis. Dillon Brooks (hip) is once again listed as questionable.
• Jeff Green is listed as questionable due to personal reasons.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -12.5, total: 221.5
Pace: LAL (6th), GSW (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable.
• For Golden State, Otto Porter (back) is listed as questionable.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Miles Bridges vs. Orlando Magic

The Hornets find themselves in a great spot, facing a bad, depleted Orlando team. Gordon Hayward is doubtful for Charlotte, which should help Bridges, as he is averaging a solid 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Hayward off the floor this season, while sporting a healthy 24% usage rate and 19% rebounding rate. This is a favorable matchup for Bridges, as the Magic are surrendering the most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards (8.56), while also coughing up the seventh-most triples per game to opposing power forwards (2.32). Meanwhile, Orlando is also allowing the most points per possession (1.08) and the second-highest field goal percentage (41.1%) off spot-ups this season. That bodes extremely well for Bridges, who is averaging 5.9 spot-up points per game on the year, good for the seventh-most in all of basketball. In three meetings with Orlando this season, Bridges is averaging just under 40 fantasy points per game.

Willy Hernangomez vs. Portland Trail Blazers

With Jonas Valanciunas out with an ankle injury last game, Hernangomez drew the start at center. And per usual, he was productive, scoring 12 points to go along with 12 rebounds and three assists in 25 minutes. The Pelicans are huge favorites and with the season coming to a close, it makes sense to rest JoVal here and let Hernangomez start at center again. If that is the case, it’ll be tough to overlook him. In just over 760 minutes with Valanciunas off the floor this season, Hernangomez is sporting a massive 40% rebounding rate to go along with a healthy 21.9% usage rate. He is also averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute in the split. And in his last start, Hernangomez saw a healthy 19 rebounding opportunities. If Valanciunas remains sidelined, Hernangomez should smash once again, especially in this matchup.

D’Angelo Russell vs. San Antonio Spurs

Russell has been pretty solid as of late, averaging 19.0 points, nearly seven assists and 35 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. He has presented a solid floor for most of the season, but I do believe there is a ceiling to be had here. Point guards have found success against San Antonio all season long, as they are coughing up the seventh-most points per game to the position (23.93). The Spurs are also allowing the most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll (19.8), while also coughing up the third-highest frequency rate off the play type at 20%. Russell, meanwhile, is sporting a healthy 34.4% frequency rate as the primary ball handler out of the pick-and-roll, while averaging over six points per game off the play type. He is a fantastic mid-range play on Thursday’s slate.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Ziaire Williams vs. DEN — If Memphis remains without both Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks Thursday, Williams should once again be in line for more minutes. He has logged 35 minutes in each of the last two games and while he doesn’t present the highest ceiling in fantasy, he doesn’t have to at his price tag.