NBA DFS Preview - First Look (3/5)

Saturday presents a smaller five-game DFS slate around the NBA. We’ll have to keep an eye on a few teams, especially the Miami Heat. Let’s take an early look at the slate and see what stands out.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for March 5 | NBA DFS First Look

San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -3.5, total: 240.5
Pace: SAS (2nd), CHA (1st)

Situations to monitor:

Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker are both listed as questionable for San Antonio.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat

MIA -1.5, total: 221.5
Pace: PHI (28th), MIA (24th)

Situations to monitor:

Jimmy Butler (toe) is listed as questionable. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry will remain out due to personal reasons.
Max Strus (shoulder), P.J. Tucker (knee) and Caleb Martin (Achilles) are also listed as questionable.

Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -16, total: 230
Pace: ORL (12th), MEM (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

Dillon Brooks will remain out for Memphis while Kyle Anderson (foot) is listed as questionable.
For Orlando, Markelle Fultz will return to the lineup. Wendell Carter (illness) missed Friday’s game.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -13, total: 233.5
Pace: POR (14th), MIN (5th)

Situations to monitor:

Anthony Edwards did not play on Friday and could miss Saturday’s game as well.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

GSW -7, total: 223.5
Pace: GSW (10th), LAL (5th)

Situations to monitor:

Draymond Green will remain sidelined for Golden State. Gary Payton has also been ruled out.
Talen Horton-Tucker is listed as questionable for Los Angeles.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Stephen Curry vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Curry isn’t typically one of my favorite plays, simply because he doesn’t have the same consistent upside as players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. However, this is a smaller slate with two of those players not playing. And the matchup against Los Angeles is great, as they are allowing a league-leading 25.2 real points per game to opposing point guards this season, as well as the fourth-most assists (9.10) and second-most rebounds per game (7.06) to the position. The Lakers are also allowing the third-most transition points per game on the year (21.3) to go along with the third-highest frequency rate off the play type (16.9%). That bodes well for Curry, who is averaging 4.3 transition points per game on the year, 12th in all of basketball.

Keldon Johnson vs. Charlotte Hornets

San Antonio is dealing with some injuries ahead of this game, as both Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker are listed as questionable. This is a good spot for Johnson regardless but if both players sit out, I like him even more, as he is averaging a very solid 0.93 fantasy points per minute with both players off the floor this season. Johnson leads the team in spot-up points per game on the year (6.6), a number that is good for second-best in all of basketball. Charlotte, meanwhile, is allowing 30.8 spot-up points per game this season, third most in the NBA. Johnson projects as a very strong mid-range play Saturday.

LaMelo Ball vs. San Antonio Spurs

On the other side of this game, Ball is very intriguing. He got into some awful foul trouble last game, ultimately logging just eight minutes because of it. Ball does get into foul trouble way more than you’d like, especially for a guard. However, if he can stay out of it, there is so much upside. As you can see, San Antonio ranks 27th against primary ball handlers, 29th against scorers and 26th against crafty finishers, per FTN’s advanced DVP tool. They are also coughing up the sixth-most real points (24.06) and third-most rebounds (6.99) per game to opposing point guards.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Doug McDermott vs. CHA — If Lonnie Walker or Devin Vassell are ruled out, McDermott will be worth a look, as he should play 25-30 minutes against one of the worst defensive units in all of basketball. As we discussed earlier, the Hornets are coughing up the third-most points per game to spot-up shooters on the season.