NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/31)

We have a smaller five-game NBA DFS slate Thursday. Per usual, a handful of star players will be out of action but we did see the return of a superstar in Los Angeles, which makes things a lot more interesting.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 31 | NBA DFS First Look

Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons

PHI -9.5, total: 223.5
Pace: PHI (28th), DET (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jerami Grant is out for the remainder of the season. Cory Joseph (back) is listed as questionable.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -2, total: 243.5
Pace: MIL (8th), BKN (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for Milwaukee.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -5, total: 225.5
Pace: CLE (26th), ATL (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will remain sidelined for Cleveland.
• For Atlanta, John Collins remains questionable, along with Danilo Gallinari (elbow)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -2.5, total: 221.5
Pace: LAC (17th), CHI (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine is listed as probable for the Bulls. 
• Paul George returned last game for Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz

UTA -13, total: 224.5
Pace: LAL (7th), UTA (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James (ankle) has been ruled out. Anthony Davis (foot) is listed as doubtful.
• Bojan Bogdanovic has missed the last nine games with a calf injury. He is once again listed as questionable.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

James Harden vs. Detroit Pistons

The 76ers could easily dismantle Detroit, but if they do, Harden will be a huge reason why. His shooting has been up-and-down since joining Philadelphia, but his playmaking has been fantastic. In fact, since his Philadelphia debut, Harden is sporting an insane 26% assist rate. And during that 15-game stretch, Harden is averaging 18.3 potential assists per game, the third-most in the NBA, while only Trae Young and Darius Garland are averaging more points created off assists per game (25.7). This is a great matchup for Harden, as the Pistons are coughing up the third-most points per game to opposing shooting guards on the season (23.18), while also allowing the third-most points per game (8.1) off isolation. Harden, meanwhile, is averaging 8.9 points per game off isolation since joining the 76ers, a number that leads the league.

Khris Middleton vs. Brooklyn Nets

Middleton is coming off a fantastic game against Philadelphia and he doesn’t stand out as much when Milwaukee is at full strength, I do like him on Thursday. As you can see, Brooklyn ranks 25th against primary ball handlers and 23rd against point forwards on the season. Middleton, meanwhile, is actually right behind Jrue Holiday for the team-led in points per game as the primary ball handler out of the pick-and-roll this season (4.7), while sporting a healthy 25% frequency rate off the play type.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Stanley Johnson vs. UTA — With LeBron James and Anthony Davis likely out for the Lakers again, look for Johnson to remain in the starting lineup and play anywhere from 32-35 minutes. He is coming off a rare ceiling game, scoring 31.25 fantasy points. Johnson’s rates still don’t exactly skyrocket with both James and Davis off the floor but there will be so many more opportunities for him in this game.

Brook Lopez vs. BKN — Lopez has been back for seven games now but given the minutes he’s been playing, he projects as an elite value option. The veteran center just played 29 minutes against Philadelphia and over his last four games, Lopez is averaging 25.4 minutes per game. At just $3,900 on DraftKings, that is more than enough playing time to warrant plenty of consideration, especially since Lopez is averaging about 0.90 fantasy points per minute over the last two seasons.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Luka Doncic (73.25)
Caris LeVert (46.0)
Max Strus (34.75)
Terry Taylor (38.25)
Damian Jones (52.25)
Jordan Poole (64.25)
Lindy Waters (36.0)
Kevin Porter (68.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Luka Doncic (71.3)
Trae Young (58.4)
Jordan Poole (60.3)
Markelle Fultz (47.1)
Kevin Porter (62.4)
Caris LeVert (43.2)
Draymond Green (41.5)
Trey Lyles (42.9)
Damian Jones (56.3)