NBA DFS Preview - First Look (1/25)

Tuesday presents a very fun nine-game NBA DFS slate that features plenty of star players, along with the return of a star in Los Angeles. News will change things throughout the day so be sure to stay on your toes and check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for January 25 | NBA DFS First Look

Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons

DEN -7, total: 219
Pace: DEN (22nd), DET (10th)

Situations to monitor:

Will Barton (hamstring) is listed as probable for Denver. Jeff Green (quad) is listed as questionable.
Kelly Olynyk is in the health and safety protocols.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington Wizards

WAS -4.5, total: 217
Pace: LAC (14th), WAS (18th)

Situations to monitor:

None.

Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -3.5, total: 221.5
Pace: CHA (2nd), TOR (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

Gordon Hayward missed Sunday’s game with a foot injury and is listed as questionable for Tuesday. Jalen McDaniels has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -8.5, total: 215
Pace: NOP (24th), PHI (24th)

Situations to monitor:

Brandon Ingram missed Monday’s game with an ankle injury and remains questionable for Tuesday.
For Philadelphia, Seth Curry will miss his third consecutive game with an ankle injury, while Danny Green and Shake Milton will also remain sidelined. Matisse Thybulle is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.

Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics

BOS -8.5, total: 219
Pace: SAC (5th), BOS (21st)

Situations to monitor:

De’Aaron Fox is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. He was a late scratch Saturday.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Brooklyn Nets

LAL -3, total: 226.5
Pace: LAL (3rd), BKN (8th)

Situations to monitor:

With this game being in Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving will not play for the Nets. Nicolas Claxton is once again listed as questionable with his hamstring injury.
Anthony Davis, who has not played since Dec. 17, is listed as probable. His minutes will likely be limited.

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets

SAS -4, total: 235
Pace: SAS (7th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

None.

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -3.5, total: 211.5
Pace: DAL (28th), GSW (12th)

Situations to monitor:

Draymond Green (calf) will remain out, while Klay Thompson is listed as questionable for Golden State.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers

MIN -3, total: 228.5
Pace: MIN (4th), POR (15th)

Situations to monitor:

Robert Covington and Nassir Little are both listed as probable for Portland, while Larry Nance is out.
Patrick Beverley is listed as questionable for Minnesota.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Tyrese Haliburton is sporting a 25% assist rate with De’Aaron Fox off the floor this season

In any scenario where Fox has been out of the Sacramento lineup, Haliburton has essentially become a lock in NBA DFS. There was a four-game stretch back in December where Fox was inactive. During that span, no player in the NBA averaged more touches per game than Haliburton (113.5), while his 10.1 minutes of possession per game also led the league. With Fox off the floor over the course of the season, Haliburton’s assist rate climbs to a whopping 25%, while also sporting a 12% rebounding rate, 19.5% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute. He’s now recorded double-digit assists in each of his last three games and if Fox remains out on Tuesday, Haliburton will be one of the top plays of the entire slate.

James Harden is posting a 34.5% usage rate with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving off the court

We know Durant is going to continue to miss time and now with Brooklyn back at home, Irving will be out of the lineup. This will lead to Harden posting Houston-like usage, as his usage rate climbs to nearly 35% with both players off the floor this season, while also posting rebounding and assist rates both well over the 20% mark. Harden is also averaging a gaudy 1.54 fantasy points per minute in the split and he’ll more than likely eclipse 100 offensive touches in this game against the Lakers, which is still a pretty friendly matchup.

Pascal Siakam is averaging 4.5 transition points per game this season

That is tied for the ninth most in the NBA this year, while Siakam has been very efficient in transition, averaging 1.17 points per possession and shooting nearly 60% off the play type. Now he gets a massive pace-up spot with a fast Charlotte team that also allows the third-most transition points per game (20.7), as well as the sixth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (53.9%). Because the Hornets play so fast, opposing teams get out on the break just over 16% of the time this season, one of the highest rates in basketball. This is a very good spot for Siakam, who is also locked into 38-40 minutes in any game that remains close.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Cam Thomas vs. LAL — With Kyrie Irving out and Kevin Durant still sidelined, Thomas will likely see more minutes and presents some value. His usage rate is just over 20% with both Durant and Irving off the floor this season and in two recent games with both players out of the lineup, Thomas attempted 13 and 18 field goals, scoring 27 and 30 fantasy points.

Herbert Jones vs. PHI — Jones is locked into very strong minutes regardless but if the Pelicans are once again without Brandon Ingram, you likely see a bit more shots and usage heading his way. Jones has played at least 34 minutes in each of his last three games.