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Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Pickens from EV Insight

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George Pickens

George PickensReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 18

Ravens vs. Steelers

Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (+105) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in football.
  • The model projects George Pickens to accrue 6.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • After accruing 78.0 air yards per game last season, George Pickens has posted big gains this season, now averaging 89.0 per game.
  • George Pickens’s 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 44.8.
Cons

  • With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • George Pickens comes in as one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.

Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards

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